China Through Rose Colored Glasses -- AsiaPundit Weighs in Provocatively

The always lively AsiaPundit Blog just weighed in on the China boom or bust controversy we started the other day, here and here.  In a post, entitled, "China's Boom/China's Bust," AsiaPundit comes down on the side of the bears, but just bearly:

AsiaPundit admits to being a bit of a bear on China. It's not that China's economic growth is a myth. The 'miracle' is very measurable. However, anything that can be measured cannot be called a miracle.

There will be a crisis, it could be sparked by bad policies at home or abroad. A collapse of US housing markets, for instance, could easily plunge the Middle Kingdom into despair. When the crisis happens, the interesting thing will be how it plays out socially and politically.
The US tends to solve its problems quickly and has the political flexibility to dismiss bad administrations by ballot. Japan's biggest crisis sparked a decade of deflation. After the Asian crisis Indonesia emerged a democracy, the Philippines never really found its feet, while South Korea made a wonderful transformation.

Predicting when a crisis will occur is a crap shoot, although there are indicators that can provide warning signs. Guessing what happens after a crisis hits is next to impossible.
China Law Blog earlier this week posted a response challenging Minxin Pei's doom-and-gloom article on China's problems. Today Dan Harris, the blog's author, notes that Tom Barnett and James Na have replied.:

I blogged a few days ago about a recent article by Minxin Pei predicting China's enivitable fall. At that time I talked about the article having generated "quite a bit of buzz in the blogosphere."  The buzz is even louder now.   
I posted Dr. Pei's article because I found it thought provoking, but I did not sign on to its pessimistic conclusion.  I suggested that those interested in these sorts of "big idea think pieces" on China should read "big idea" bloggers like James Na, Dan Drezner and Tom Barnett, whose views range all over the China optimist-pessimist map.   
Barnett and Na both took me up on my suggestion and both ran posts on the Pei piece.  Na liked Pei's thesis.  Barnett did not.

Then, in the smartest play for readership I have yet seen from a blog (and intentionally and blatently repeated here), AsiaPundit ruminates on how a scheduling conflict is going to prevent him from taking up Tiari Lestari on her invitation to come see her model in Bali. AsiaPundit then flashes a picture of Ms. Lestari emminently capable of taking one's mind off the whole China issue.  Go here for that.  Back on topic, I realize China will, at some point, face both small and large economic crisis.  My disagreement is with those who seem to delight in predicting China's economic doom based more China's politics than on its present economic realities. 

AsiaPundit admits to being a bit of a bear on China. It's not that China's economic growth is a myth. The 'miracle' is very measurable. However, anything that can be measured cannot be called a miracle.

There will be a crisis, it could be sparked by bad policies at home or abroad. A collapse of US housing markets, for instance, could easily plunge the Middle Kingdom into despair. When the crisis happens, the interesting thing will be how it plays out socially and politically.
The US tends to solve its problems quickly and has the political flexibility to dismiss bad administrations by ballot. Japan's biggest crisis sparked a decade of deflation. After the Asian crisis Indonesia emerged a democracy, the Philippines never really found its feet, while South Korea made a wonderful transformation.

Predicting when a crisis will occur is a crap shoot, although there are indicators that can provide warning signs. Guessing what happens after a crisis hits is next to impossible.
China Law Blog earlier this week posted a response challenging Minxin Pei's doom-and-gloom article on China's problems. Today Dan Harris, the blog's author, notes that Tom Barnett and James Na have replied.:

I blogged a few days ago about a recent article by Minxin Pei predicting China's enivitable fall. At that time I talked about the article having generated "quite a bit of buzz in the blogosphere."  The buzz is even louder now.   
I posted Dr. Pei's article because I found it thought provoking, but I did not sign on to its pessimistic conclusion.  I suggested that those interested in these sorts of "big idea think pieces" on China should read "big idea" bloggers like James Na, Dan Drezner and Tom Barnett, whose views range all over the China optimist-pessimist map.   
Barnett and Na both took me up on my suggestion and both ran posts on the Pei piece.  Na liked Pei's thesis.  Barnett did not.

Then, in the smartest play for readership I have yet seen from a blog (and intentionally and blatently repeated here), AsiaPundit ruminates on how a scheduling conflict is going to prevent him from taking up Tiari Lestari on her invitation to come see her model in Bali. AsiaPundit then flashes a picture of Ms. Lestari emminently capable of taking one's mind off the whole China issue.  Go here for that.  Back on topic, I realize China will, at some point, face both small and large economic crisis.  My disagreement is with those who seem to delight in predicting China's economic doom based more China's politics than on its present economic realities. 

Comments

[myrick]

Thanks for the link. I'm not entirely on the same page - politics will play a role in any crisis that hits here. But it won't particularly be because authoritarian governments can't be efficient (Lee Kwan-yew is the posterboy for effecient authoratianism, and Pinochet was also an efficient administrator). But politics matters. The party is not united on things and that means it does not address problems with the urgency needed. That would apply to rural/central divisions and turf battles between the PBoC, Mofcom, NDRC, etc...
An economic crisis will happen and there are a lot of dominoes that could topple if the catalyst is big enough. No one predicted 97, though Krugman and Mark Clifford did make good calls.
But an economic collapse doesn't mean the party will fall. There is no opposition, so I expect it will hang on. What worries me is that a post-crisis China will see a new Mao rather than a new Deng. I still hope for a new Zhao Ziyang.
But enough about politics. I really can't believe that my boss thinks that Wen Jiabao's annual press conference is of more news value than Tiara Lestari's exhibit.